Queensway Blog

News / Analysis

Finance Update – The Historical Cycle at Play


Americas – Trump on the warpath… again

With daily COVID deaths in the US at a 2-month low, US index futures are up this morning after the Labour Day banking holiday saved benchmarks from Friday’s bloodbath.

The US Dollar added another 0.4% during the Asian session after US Pres D. Trump told his Labour Day audience that if re-elected he would entirely “decouple” the economy from China and target companies manufacturing there.

Europe – Brexit bogged down… again

European indices yesterday took advantage of the US market holiday to rise quite spectacularly across the board. The FTSE added 2.39%with the DAX up 2.01% and the CAC – 1.79%.

Industrial production in Germany fell to a 1.2% increase, down from June’s 9.3% MoM, and the nation’s trade surplus surprisingly improved to a seasonally adjusted €18 bn in July as both imports and export growth contracted dramatically.

France’s July Trade deficit improved in July to €6.2 bn.

Britain’s Halifax House Price Index pleased with a 1.6% expansion in August. Like-for-like retail sales in the Isles, however, fell to 4.7%, missing the 5.7% increase expected.

Asia – Australia suffering from COVID

Asian indices are basking in yesterday’s European uptrend with only the A50 showing signs of wear and tear – losing 1.43%. Otherwise, the ASX is up 1.06% and green in general rules the boards.

China’s foreign exchange reserves missed the mark, only increasing by $11 bn to $2.165 tn.

And Japan’s GDP contracted by 7.9% QoQ in Q2 – not as bad as the 8.1% expected. The nation swung from a ¥77.3 bn deficit in June to a ¥137.3 bn surplus in July. On the other hand, household spending contracted by a whopping 7.6% YoY in July and cash earnings by 1.3%.

In Australia, business conditions missed expectations at -6 points, but business confidence improved to -8 from -14 in July.

Commodities – Shalers stocking up on drilling permits – just in case

Oil prices continue to fall as Summer holidays come to an end and “driving season” winds down. Hedge funds last week sold a record 40 mn barrels’ worth of futures and options contracts, according to Reuters. On the other hand, US shale producers are preparing for a Biden takeover by stocking up on drilling permits.

Corporate – FAA retargets Boeing… again

Boeing (+1.35%) woes return to the headlines as the US Federal Aviation Administration begins reviewing 787 Dreamliner manufacturing lapses, according to the Wall St. Journal.

Today, expect quarterly earnings from Slack (-6.18%) and Travis Perkins. Walmart (-1.18%), Johnson & Johnson (-0.57%) and Southern (-0.56%) pay dividends, and Royal Mail holds a shareholders’ conference.


09:00 AM GMT EU GDP & Unemployment
10:00 AM GMT US NFIB Business Optimism. Consumer Credit at 7 PM
10:45 PM GMT NZ Manufacturing Sales. Business Confidence at 1 AM (+1)
00:30 AM GMT (+1) Australia Consumer Confidence. Home loans at 1:30
01:30 AM GMT (+1) China CPI & PPI


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