News / Analysis
Finance Update – Seasonal surprisesOctober 12, 2020
Asia – Tensions easing
Asian indices are all remarkably up this morning, the China !50 adding 4.52% placing markets at a 2-year peak. Only the Nikkei is in the red with a 0.31% loss as the Yen strengthens to the tune of 13 pips against the USD.
The weekend saw some positive figures from Japan, household spending contracting by 6.9% YoY in August – up from July’s -7.6%, the cash earnings contraction also improving and Ecowatchers sentiment surveys up 6 points each in September. Machinery orders in August surprised positively with a 0.2% increase MoM. However, Producer inflationThe rise in prices for goods and services, resulting in the deterioration of a currency’s purchasi... contracted by 0.2% MoM in September.
Business confidence and activity outlooks for October also improved dramatically in New Zealand, the latter expanding by 3.6% following September’s 5.4% contraction. Visitor arrivals for this tourism-dependent land contracted by 96.9% in August – better than the 114% expected and July’s 98.5%. And home loans and investments in Australia also improving to 13.6% and 9.3%, respectively.
Europe – London selling Milan
As the London Stock Exchange prepares to sell the Italian Borsa Italiana to France’s Euronext for about €4.3bn, European indices were mainly up yesterday led by the AEX’s 1.29%. The deal is one requirement that will allow the LSE to purchase Thomson Reuter’s Refinitiv – a global provider of financial marketA location or entity where people and entities can negotiate and trade assets of value. data and infrastructure in a deal worth £21 billion.
Contrary to disappointing trade numbers from Germany the day before, the UK in August surprised to the upside with a non-EU trade deficitA trade balance that is negative as a result of cost (imports, on the national level) being greater ... that contracted only to £-2.308 B – ½ a billion better than expected. The total trade surplusA trade balance that is positive as a result of income (exports on the national level) being greater... contracted to £1.364 B while GDP expanded by 2.1% – half the expected, and manufacturing production contracted by a worse-than-expected 8,4% YoY.
Industrial output in France disappointed with a 1.3% increase while in Italy produced a 7.7% increase on expectations of a mere 1.3%.
Americas – Markets liking Biden
US indices continue up, the Nasdaq adding 1.39% yesterday, strangely as Biden widens his margin over the incumbent, increasing hopes for a post-election stimulus bill.
Continuing jobless claims for the last week of September came in a tad better than expected, at 10.976mn claimants while the initial figure disappointed with 840K new applicants. Wholesale inventories dropped a tickAn asset’s minimal unit of measurement and price change. to 0.4%.
With no data today, Columbus Day, the USD continues down after Democrats rejected Trump’s latest Corona bill saying it provides no assistance to frontline workers, testing and childcare.
North of the border, unemployment in Canada improved to 9.2% in September with the participation rate up ½ a per cent. Today Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving.
Commodities – Digi-Yuan lottery opens
Gold over the weekend broke through supportThe price level that traders believe represents the lowest value an asset can reach. At this point, ... at 1923 on dollar weakness and is currently battling resistanceThe price level that traders believe represents the highest value an asset will reach before reversi... at 1936.
And oil is down 0.8% after Baker Hughes delivered a 4-rig increase to 193 active drilling platforms in the US.
All major cryptos are up this morning after the Shenzhen municipality announced a lottery that will give away about $1.47mn-worth of digital Yuans. The recent 12-month pilot project resulted in over a billion yuans’-worth (about $700mn) of transactions.
Corporate – Earnings week ahead
Ahead of Thursday’s earnings report, Morgan Stanley ended the week down 0.35% after announcing it would be buying Eaton Vance – one of the country’s oldest investmentAn asset (usually money or work) provided to another in expectation of receiving a cash return or be... management firms – for a deal worth about $7bn. Last week, the bank purchased online brokerage ETrade for $13 bn.
|08:00 PM GMT||NZ||House prices. Electronic Card Retail Sales at 9:45.|
|11:00 PM GMT||UK||BRC Like-4-like retail sales. Unemployment at 6 AM GMTGreenwich Mean Time (usually equals UTC – Universal Coordinated Time). GMT is a time zone, while U... (+1).|
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