News / Analysis
Finance Update – The Day the Bankers SpokeOctober 19, 2020
Asia – Ardern sweeps the vote
With most world central bankers slated to speechify throughout the day, Asian indices are mixed this morning, the Shenzhen Composite down 0.36% and the Nikkei up 1.16% after Japan published a ¥675 bn trade surplusA trade balance that is positive as a result of income (exports on the national level) being greater... in September – nearly triple August’s figure but missing expectations by a third.
The Yuan peaked briefly at 0.14954 overnight after China disappointed on its Q3 GDP with a mere 2.7% increase QoQ. Retail sales soared by 3.3% YoY in September and industrial production by 6.9%.
And the NZD is still celebrating PM Ardern’s sweeping victory in Thursday’s elections.
Europe – COVID resurges across Europe
European indices closed strongly up Friday led by the CAC40’s 2.04%.
ECB Pres Lagarde said Sunday that the zone’s recovery was threatened by Covid resurgence. The EU on Friday published a better-than-expected €21.9 bn seasonally adjusted trade surplus in August with the CPI steady at -0.3% for September. Italian data was disappointing, CPIs down a tickAn asset’s minimal unit of measurement and price change., the trade surplus decimated but industrial orders soaring by 15% after July’s mere 3.4%.
House prices in the UK keep rising, 5.5% YoY in October – up a half per cent from September. BoE Gov. Bailey over the weekend told the G30 that he expected the UK economy to shrink by 10% YoY in Q3, while accounting firm Deloitte reports that 62% of UK CFOs believe the economy will not show signs of recovery from the pandemic before Q2 next year.
Americas – Pelosi: no stimulus before elections
US indices were mixed Friday, the Dow adding 0.39% and the Nasdaq losing 0.36%.
Once again, continuing jobless claims contracted by a pleasing 1.1mn claims to 10.02mn but the initial figure increased to 898K.
Michigan U published a 1 pointThe unit of price change for bonds (1%), futures (0.01%), shares ($1) and mortgage fees (1% of the p... increase to 81.2 in October’s preliminary consumer sentiment while industrial production contracted by 0.6% in September and business inventories increased by 0.1% – better than the 0.4% expected.
House Speaker Pelosi told the Wall StreetA street in Lower Manhattan that runs along the original route of the wall surrounding historical Ne... Journal Sunday that if a deal is not reached by Tuesday, there would not be a COVID relief bill before presidential elections. Atlanta Fed head Bostic on Sunday warned against the nation’s uneven recovery, saying he did not see inflationThe rise in prices for goods and services, resulting in the deterioration of a currency’s purchasi... as a threat.
Commodities – Putin & Salman renew oil cooperation
Oil over the weekend slipped into a side trend after Baker Hughes reported a 12-rig increase in active US oil drills. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin and Said Crown Prince bin Salman agreed to continue OPEC+ coordination.
Corporate – IBM launches hitech earnings
Dutch health tech firm, Phillips (+3.62%) reported a 6% increase in sales to €5 bn and a 32% increase in earnings in Q3 thanks to a 42% increase in COVID-related equipment.
Morgan Stanley (+1.01%) on Thursday reported a 1.7% increase in revenues to $11.7 bn and a 40c increase in EPS to $1.66.
Walgreens (-0.61%), weighed down by its Boots alliance, reported a 2.3% increase in sales to $34.7 bn, but a 42.8% slide in earnings to 43c per share.
Today, expect earnings from Halliburton and IBM.
|09:00 AM GMT||EU||Construction Output. Lagarde speech at 12:45 PM.|
|12:00 PM GMT||US||Powell speech. Housing MarketA location or entity where people and entities can negotiate and trade assets of value. at 2 PM|
|12:30 PM GMT||Canada||Wholesale Sales. BoC Business Outlook at 2:30.|
|09:00 PM GMT||NZ||Business Confidence|
|Midnight GMT||Australia||New Home Sales. RBA minutes at 0:30 (+1).|
|01:30 AM GMTGreenwich Mean Time (usually equals UTC – Universal Coordinated Time). GMT is a time zone, while U... (+1)||China||InterestThe cost of accessing money not owned. rates. House prices (ND)|
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