News / Analysis
Finance Update – The Viral Recoup-erationOctober 5, 2020
Asian markets are in the green this morning, save the Shanghai Composite, which is down 0.2% and the Tadawul – -1.41%. Australia’s ASX is up 2.6% after overnight improvements in the NAB Business Confidence index and CommBank’s Service & Composite PMIs – both now strongly into expansionary territory.
And the Nikkei is up 1.222% thanks to a 2-point improvement in Jibun’s (still contractionary) Services PMI. Japan’s unemployment rate added a tick, climbing to 3% in August, and consumer confidence improved to 32.7 but missed the mark by a point.
Major European indices were mainly up as last week ended, the FTSE adding 0.4% and the DAX losing 0.33%. Germany’s Deutsche Borse reported a 28% increase in turnover in September.
The Euro is near the top of its week-long range after Manufacturing PMIs Thursday disappointed expectations in Italy, Germany and the UK but adding a point and a 1/3 in France. Unemployment throughout the Eurozone climbed another 1/10 of a per cent while the PPI improved by ½ a per cent YoY in August but consumer inflation contracted by 0.3% YoY.
On Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson released a joint statement that the UK and the EU need to reach a Brexit deal.
Index futures are up this morning after Friday’s red close – the Nasdaq to the tune of 2.22% – after the US president was taken to hospital suffering from COVID-19.
News of Trump’s infection almost obliterated the passing of the $2.2 tn stimulus package in the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives; it now has to conquer the Republican Senate, as well.
On the data front, jobless claims came in better than expected during the 3rd week of September, but Friday’s NFP disappointed coming in at 661K. The participation rate fell by 3 ticks, earnings by 2 ,and personal spending fell to 1% from 1.5% in July. Manufacturing is down 0.3 points by Markit, 0.6 according to ISM.
In Canada, the Markit firm reported a 1-point improvement in the Manufacturing PMI, landing at 56 for September, and building permits increased by 1.7%, following August’s 1.6% contraction.
Oil over the weekend performed a perfect double bottom before adding 2.27% during this morning’s Asian session. With Baker Hughes reporting a 6-rig increase in active US oil wells, the asset is currently struggling to cross above the $38 resistance level.
Gold jumped $25 per ounce on Friday’s Trump announcement only to lose the gain over the weekend, currently bouncing off support at 1896.
With earnings season a week away, today is ex-dividend day for Agilent Technology (paying on the 28th) and JPMorgan (Paying on the 31st).
|7:30 AM-1:30 PM GMT||Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, EU, UK & US||Services & Composite PMIs|
|09:00 AM GMT||EU||Retail Sales|
|02:00 PM GMT||US||ISM Services & Composite PMIs.|
|09:00 PM GMT||NZ||Business Confidence|
|11:01 PM GMT||UK||BRC Like-4-like Retail Sales|
|00:30 AM GMT (+1)||Australia||Trade Balance. Interest rate & statement at 3:30|